China’s alcohol industry, once a symbol of the country’s rapid economic ascent and growing affluence, is grappling with a prolonged downturn in prices and demand. Despite repeated assertions from international and domestic producers that China remains a critical long-term growth market, current conditions tell a story of caution, discounting, and structural adjustment.

Newly released data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics confirms that alcohol prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in September. Consumer alcohol prices dropped by 0.3% month-on-month and were down 2.1% compared to the same period last year. The decline is broad-based, affecting everything from mass-market beers to ultra-premium spirits, and reflects deeper issues of weak consumer confidence and economic uncertainty.

Domestic Brands Lose Pricing Power

Baijiu, especially the high-end segment that relies heavily on corporate gifting and luxury consumption, has been notably impacted. Feitian Moutai, long considered a bellwether for premium demand, has seen its average retail price fall to approximately RMB 2,000 per bottle—a significant drop from its typical level above RMB 3,500. Industry analysts attribute this to reduced business entertainment expenses and a shift in consumer behavior towards more pragmatic spending.

Other famous baijiu producers, such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, are also offering uncommonly high discounts through online channels and during holiday promotions, indicating that inventory buildup remains a serious issue across the sector.

Imported Wine Sector in Disarray

The situation for imported wines is even more challenging. An oversupply in the market, compounded by the rise of parallel imports, has led to severe price erosion. Parallel imports—products originally intended for markets like Japan, Singapore, or Thailand—are increasingly diverted to China, where they are sold on major e-commerce platforms at deeply discounted rates.

For example, Treasury Wine Estates’ Penfolds Bin 407 now sells for around RMB 600 per bottle on cross-border sites such as JD.com and Tmall Global, well below the RMB 880 price point in its official stores. Similarly, Moët Hennessy’s Cloudy Bay Sauvignon Blanc is available for as low as RMB 184 via unofficial channels, compared to an recommended retail price near RMB 337.

This has created an unsustainable environment for licensed distributors, who are often forced to sell below cost to remain competitive, resulting in substantial financial losses.

Economic and Geopolitical Pressures Mount

The broader economic context plays a crucial role. With China’s economic growth slowing and unemployment among young people remaining elevated, discretionary spending has taken a hit. Additionally, the government’s ongoing anti-extravagance campaigns have further dampened demand for high-end alcohol.

Geopolitical tensions also continue to cast a shadow. Although China lifted punitive tariffs on Australian wines less than two years ago, recent diplomatic friction has led to veiled threats from Beijing about the possible reintroduction of tariffs if Australia continues to strengthen its military ties with the U.S. This uncertainty makes importers hesitant to commit to long-term contracts, thereby destabilizing supply planning.

Industry Responses: Survival Strategies

Faced with these challenges, retailers and distributors are adopting various strategies to survive. Many are organizing group-buying events, deepening partnerships with live-stream sellers, and focusing on mid-tier products with stronger volume potential. Some are also exploring下沉市场—lower-tier cities and rural areas where consumption momentum remains relatively stronger.

“We are seeing a fundamental recalibration of the market,” says Chen Jun, a beverage industry consultant based in Guangzhou. “Brands that relied on prestige pricing and guanxi-based sales are now having to rethink their approach. The new consumer is more price-sensitive, digitally savvy, and less loyal.”

Long-Term Outlook Still Positive but Bumpy

Despite the current gloom, most industry leaders maintain that China’s alcohol market will rebound in the long run. The country’s middle class is still expanding, and wine and spirits culture continues to evolve. However, the road to recovery may be longer and more uneven than previously expected.

For now, the market is characterized by a fierce battle for volume, intense price competition, and a cautious approach from both consumers and investors. Companies that adapt quickly to the new commercial reality—by optimizing supply chains, strengthening online presence, and offering clearer value propositions—are most likely to emerge successfully when demand eventually returns.