A recent report on China’s on-trade market also hints at three major shifts for the baijiu industry.

1. Fast-casual dining rises – so does “no-frill” baijiu

In 2025, Chinese fast food (rice, noodles, dumplings) reached a market size of 1.2 trillion yuan, surpassing traditional sit-down meals (1.16 trillion) and casual dining like hotpot (1.02 trillion). Fast‑casual rice shops saw 17% growth, while home‑style restaurants shrank 18%. In lower‑tier cities, fast‑food revenue jumped over 20%. This “value‑for‑money” trend directly benefits baijiu’s affordable segment – small bottles and “plain bottles” (around a few dozen yuan). As premium baijiu pairs with formal dining, mass‑market baijiu aligns with quick meals.

 2. Volume up, price down – efficiency over scale

The restaurant sector saw total transactions rise 8.3% but average ticket value fall 4.7% in 2025. Consumers shift from “big spend, few visits” to “small spend, many visits.” Baijiu faces the same pressure – inventory overhang and price instability from super‑premium to low‑end. The future lies in “full‑chain efficiency”: supply chain optimization, digital tools, and cost control. Simply cutting prices won’t work; brands need to offer “value experience” – better quality at a fair price. Only firms achieving a positive “volume‑efficiency‑profit” loop will survive.

 3. “Instant drink” era – winning the last mile

Food delivery now accounts for 30% of restaurant sales. Consumers want “30‑minute arrival” for everything, including baijiu. Traditional store‑or‑restaurant ordering is being challenged. For solo meals or late‑night bites, small bottles (100‑125ml) are perfect – easily added to delivery orders. Brands must partner with Meituan, JD, etc. Young drinkers prefer light, mixable baijiu for casual settings, not heavy spirits. Lower alcohol or tea‑mixable baijiu could be key.

 In short, the era of steady price hikes and single channels is over. Premium baijiu should follow formal dining to lower‑tier cities for family and wedding banquets; mass‑market baijiu must embrace fast food and delivery ecosystems. The ability to penetrate high‑frequency, “instant” scenarios will decide winners in the zero‑sum game ahead.