Recently, China's securities regulator asked 11 overseas IPO applicants for supplementary materials, including Golden Star Brewery, sparking renewed discussion about a "Chinese craft beer" first listing. Yet beyond capital markets, a clearer shift is emerging at this year's Chengdu Spring Sugar and Wine Fair: tea beer has cooled, while fruit beer and fruit wine brands are flooding in.

Tea beer's rise began in August 2024, when Golden Star launched "Xinyang Maojian Beer," a craft beer brewed with tea leaves. It went viral, driving the company's revenue from RMB 356 million in 2023 to RMB 1.11 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, and net profit from RMB 12.2 million to RMB 305 million. But since late 2025, market interest has faded. Many consumers tried tea beer out of curiosity—sparked by trademark disputes and novelty—but failed to form lasting buying habits.

Now fruit beer is stepping in. According to Shangpu Consulting, China's craft beer retail market is set to exceed RMB 100 billion by 2026 and reach RMB 182.1 billion by 2029. Young consumers, especially Gen Z and women, prefer low-alcohol, easy-drinking, photogenic beverages. Fruit beer fits perfectly, expanding beer consumption from night-time street stalls to daytime picnics, camping, and home relaxation.

Yet homogeneity is creeping in. At the fair, many fruit beer brands looked alike—similar packaging and similar flavors. One distributor said, "Remove the label, and you can't tell them apart." Some taste thin or off. "Copying a successful flavor now takes weeks instead of months," an insider noted.

The deeper question: Are we selling products or stories? Tea beer's decline may stem from over-reliance on marketing rather than solid quality. Some "tea beers" contained only tea extracts or flavors, not real brewing innovation. Once novelty wears off, so does premium pricing.

The same challenge now faces fruit beer. A producer admitted, "Using real fruit concentrate costs much more; skipping it costs almost nothing." If fruit beer becomes just "industrial lager plus fruit flavoring," consumer patience will run out.

Quality must be backed by real ingredients and craftsmanship—better juice-malt fusion, flavor stability, and yeast fermentation. What's missing is a clear grading system, certification standards, and lifecycle management. By the end of 2025, flavored craft beer is expected to account for 21% of the craft beer market (RMB 17.7 billion), rising to 36% (RMB 66 billion) by 2029. Without standards, bad money may drive out good.

The real challenge of a hit product isn't selling big—it's selling long. Is fruit beer a genuine upgrade or just another short-lived craze? We need to grow the pie, not ruin quality. Otherwise, we're stuck in an endless cycle of boom, copy, crash, and wait for the next fad. That's no way for a mature industry to evolve.