Data from the first three quarters of 2025 reveals a profound structural shift in China's alcoholic beverage market, marked by a clear contrast: a downturn in imports alongside robust export growth. This reflects evolving consumer preferences, a return to market rationality, and the rising international competitiveness of domestic products.

Shifting Import Landscape: Rationalization and Premiumization

Overall alcohol imports fell by 13.9% in value, indicating a "slowly accelerating downturn." However, this signifies structural optimization rather than simple contraction.

Spirits: Spirit imports showed a trend of increased volume but decreased value (up 6.8%, down 24.2%). The era of the "cognac myth" appears over, with French brandy imports plummeting 56%. Conversely, whisky imports surged 33.3% in volume, and niche spirits like vodka and tequila grew over 50%, highlighting a consumer shift towards personal taste exploration over status-driven brand loyalty. Notably, Baijiu imports defied the trend, soaring 40.4% with a high average price, indicating strong overseas demand from Chinese diaspora.

Wine: Wine imports displayed a pattern of "drinking less but drinking better," with volume down 22.6% but the average price up 23.4%. Australia capitalized on zero-tariff advantages to capture 41.65% market share, while France's share declined.

Beer: Imported beer lost its allure, with volume, value, and price all falling. The rise of quality domestic craft beers offers compelling alternatives. Notably, non-alcoholic beer imports grew 13.1%, signaling a health-conscious trend.

Thriving Exports: "Made in China" Gains Ground

In stark contrast, China's alcohol exports grew 7.9% in value, demonstrating global reach.

Baijiu: As the export leader, Baijiu exceeded $700 million in export value (up 5.3%). While Hong Kong remains the primary hub (~40%), growth in the UK, Myanmar, and Vietnam suggests a slow penetration beyond traditional Chinese communities, driven by cultural influence.

Beer: Beer exports reached $410 million, with volume and value both rising around 17%. Its competitive price ($0.7/L) and stable quality have secured a strong position in Asian markets like Taiwan (China), Myanmar, and Russia, dominated by scale.

Wine: Although the base is small ($42.74 million), wine exports saw explosive growth of 137.4%, making it the dark horse. Heavy reliance on Hong Kong (74.2%) suggests re-export and e-commerce are key drivers, but also highlights a vulnerability.

Underlying Consumer Shifts

The data points to three major consumer transitions in China:

From Social Signaling to Personal Enjoyment: Premium gifting (e.g., brandy) declines in favor of diverse spirits and fine wines for personal exploration.

From Blind Faith in Imports to Rational Choice: The halo effect of imported beer fades as consumers prioritize quality and value, creating space for domestic premium brands.

From an Import Market to Two-Way Exchange: While importing global varieties, China is also confidently exporting Baijiu, beer, and wine, transitioning from a mere market to a brand origin.

This restructuring signifies the end of an old era and the beginning of a more complex, diverse chapter for China's alcohol industry, with consumers becoming more rational and producers finding their unique global niches.