The year 2025 marks a pivotal transition for the alcohol industry, as it concludes the "14th Five-Year Plan" ("14th FYP") and begins drafting the "15th Five-Year Plan" ("15th FYP"). Success in both endeavors hinges on a "truth-seeking" review of the past and a "pragmatic" approach to the future. The concept of "planning-based governance" is essential. Since its founding, China has achieved remarkable progress through systematic, forward-looking medium- and long-term plans, a hallmark of its governance model and a testament to the superiority of its socialist system. For instance, the "Made in China 2025" strategy has propelled global leadership in high-speed rail, shipbuilding, drones, and new energy vehicles. Similarly, the 14 iterations of the "Five-Year Plan" have driven milestones like the "Shenzhou" space missions, "Chang'e" lunar explorations, "Beidou" satellite networks, and "Jiaolong" deep-sea expeditions, elevating China to the world's second-largest economy.

The alcohol industry has also benefited immensely from these plans. For example, the original Beijing Eastern Suburbs Winery under Hongxing was linked to one of the 156 key projects of the First Five-Year Plan. From 1949 to 1953, China's total alcoholic beverage output surged from 156,200 tons to 344,700 tons, underscoring the transformative power of strategic planning. Scientific planning provides clarity, reduces盲目性 (blindness), and ensures sustainable development. Thus, "planning-based governance for the alcohol industry" is imperative to avoid short-sightedness and无序 (disorder).

Truth-Seeking Review of the "14th FYP"
A candid assessment of the "14th FYP" is crucial for identifying gaps and informing the "15th FYP." Over the past five years, the industry has made significant strides: improved profitability despite stagnant output, enhanced product quality, technological upgrades (e.g., digitalization and green production), innovation, and stronger cultural branding. However, challenges persist, including declining demand, overcapacity, excessive inventory, and intense market competition. External factors like economic slowdowns and shifting consumer preferences (e.g., health consciousness) have played a role, but internal missteps—such as overestimating消费升级 (consumption upgrades) and盲目扩产 (blind expansion)—have exacerbated issues. For instance, the白酒 (baijiu) sector's price bubbles and supply-demand imbalances stemmed from脱离实际 (detachment from reality). Lessons from啤酒 (beer), which prioritized affordability and quality over premium pricing, offer valuable insights.

Pragmatic Planning for the "15th FYP"
The "15th FYP" must prioritize practicality:

1. Methodology: Ground decisions in reality through thorough research and democratic deliberation.

2. Trend Analysis: Balance optimism with realism, recognizing structural challenges (e.g., demographic shifts) and cyclical fluctuations.

3. Goal-Setting: Targets should be ambitious yet achievable, avoiding extremes of overreach or complacency.

4. Direction: Align with national policies, emphasizing高质量发展 (high-quality development), green and smart technologies, and industrial生态 (ecosystem) optimization.

5. Measures: Tailor strategies to细分行业 (sub-sectors) and企业 (enterprises), ensuring actionable, science-based solutions.

In summary, the alcohol industry must embrace seeking truth from facts to navigate challenges and seize opportunities in the "15th FYP," fostering a modern, sustainable, and resilient ecosystem.