The extended Spring Festival holiday ended with record-breaking consumption: 596 million domestic trips and 803.48 billion yuan in spending. Amid this economic surge, the baijiu market displayed unprecedented complexity, forming a clear "dumbbell" structure. Premium segments (led by Moutai and Wuliangye) remained resilient, mass-market products around 100 yuan thrived, while mid-to-premium tiers (300-800 yuan) faced widespread pressure.

Premium Resilience

Despite pre-holiday concerns, Moutai achieved high single-digit to double-digit growth, with wholesale prices rebounding 150 yuan per bottle from late 2025. Wuliangye’s 39% ABV variant saw double-digit sales growth, and banquet occasions more than doubled. Both brands reported healthy inventory levels (around one month) and genuine consumption pull, not channel stuffing.

Mid-to-Premium Slump

Excluding Moutai, industry sales likely dropped 20-25% year-on-year, with volume declines as the main drag. The 300-800 yuan segment suffered most, squeezed by premium gift-giving rigidity below and fierce competition from 100-300 yuan local brands above.

Mass Market Vibrancy

Driven by family gatherings and rational consumption, the 100-300 yuan price band grew by double digits. Famous-brand "bare rice wines" like Fenjiu’s Bofen and Wuliangye’s Jianzhuang capitalized on brand equity and affordable pricing, becoming festive favorites.

Bottoming Signals?

Overall industry sales declined but at a narrower rate than in late 2025, suggesting a possible bottom. Recovery warmth is concentrated in top-tier brands and the mass tier. Brokerages expect a rebound in the second half of 2026, with divergence persisting. Who will lead the charge? The market awaits.