Why the Wine Industry Should Care About Global Warming
ABOVE: The climate-maturity groupings given in this figure are based on relationships between phenological requirements and climate for high to premium quality wine production in the world's benchmark regions for each variety. The dashed line at the end of the bars indicates that some adjustments may occur as more data become available, but changes of more than +/- 0.5-1.0°F are highly unlikely. The figure and the research behind it are a work in progress and are used with permission of the author, Dr. Gregory V. Jones.
Water and bugs
In general, there will be a local adaptation by each environment, a possibility for planting new varieties in regions not previously suitable. Varieties only grown 500km south of a region may be possibly planted further north. Bordeaux will resemble Valencia, Burgundy will resemble Bordeaux, southern England will resemble Champagne, etc.
Dr. Richard Smart, in what could be construed as an alarmist tone, cited the presence in southern Germany of the pest hyalestes obsoletus (a vector for Bois Noir phytoplasma disease) as an example of the effects of climate change. Research of this has shown that 30 percent of vines will be symptomatic in the second year of exposure, providing no yield. Smart also discussed the presence of the multicolored Asian Lady Beetle in Ontario, the U.S. Midwest and all along the eastern U.S. seaboard. Introduced as a method of aphid control on soybeans, this bug taints wine with methoxypyrazines. According to Smart, it "breeds like crazy" and may now be found in Italy, Belgium and the U.K. His suggestions included planting Petit Verdot, Graciano, Durif, Vermentino, Viognier, Verdelho and Verdejo in the predicted "very hot" regions of central Spain and southwest France.
Taking the Old World to task vs. the New World, Smart claimed that although Bordeaux vignerons boast that their Cabernet is the best in the world, this region is climatically beginning to resemble his native Australia's Riverland district's Cabernet Sauvignon. Taking on Australia itself, Smart added that as temperatures rise over the next few decades in the Murray River region-which accounts for over 50 percent of Australia's bulk winegrapes-grape growing may become untenable.
Carlos Falco, owner of the Marques de Grinon estate and who studied with Professor Irwin Winkler at the University of California-Davis, speculated, "In the midterm, if we lose the Gulf stream, this may mean that both Spain and Bordeaux could become cooler rather than warmer."
With the rise of salinity in freshwater tables, the ability to irrigate will be a growing problem in Europe. Professor Christian Butzke of Purdue University suggests planting varieties more suitable for the different climatic conditions, varieties such as Grenache and Syrah in Bordeaux. If there's only a 1 degree Celsius increase in the earth's temperature, climate change will lead to a 15 percent depletion of water resources around 2030, a 2.5 degree Celsius increase of temperature and 17 percent depletion by 2060, and an 8 percent drop in overall production.
Adam Lechmere, editor of Decanter magazine, drove the point home by suggesting that although, "wine's positive connection with the land is a strong element of its selling point, both New Zealand and Australia have and still are playing massively upon this. However, four billion liters of water per year are consumed for wine production in Australia alone."
Terrorists in Our Midst
David Smart of the Department of Viticulture & Oenology at UC Davis stated, "Global temperatures have increased 0.15 degree Celsius per decade in the 20th century, more in Catalonia," and that both minimum and maximum temperatures in Europe are increasing. He suggested that the choice of rootstock will be a factor in the rate of fermentation, with possible solutions as:
1. Influence of global climate change on terrestrial evapotranspiration uncertain.
2. Increased frequency of anomalous precipitation events can increase decertification of Iberia.
3. Yields (and quality?) are highly sensitive to seasonality of precipitation and heat waves.
4. We need to further explore the role of rootstocks in response to climate change.
Half-jokingly, Richard Smart encouraged people to move to his native Australia "because the situation, as Bernard Seguin suggested, will be that global warming may not affect the southern hemisphere so much as the northern." He challenged the audience to "Fight the war on terror," characterizing terrorist nations as those polluting the Earth's atmosphere with no regard for other countries, and for individuals to act responsibly as global citizens. Political solutions were also taken to task by Lechmere, who quipped, "Getting governments to do something for a long-term solution when administrations are modeled on four- to five-year terms of service is difficult."
Dr. Greg Jones, climatologist with Southern Oregon University and a winemaker himself, added that public recognition of the problems facing us remains a challenge. "Governments don't always have a solution for our problems...and Hollywood won't make a movie about gradual climate change."
Campo concluded the conference by exhorting the assembled to "spread the word about what you've learned here. It might not help sell wine today, but global warming will bite us all in the ass in 20 years' time." wbm
Note: For more information about this and other Wine Academy of Spain conferences, contact Javier Arauz at jarauz@thewineacademy.com. Campo's Wine Academy of Spain plans to host another conference on global warming in two years. Next year they will host a conference on bottle closures.
