Why the Wine Industry Should Care About Global Warming
The first international Global Warming and Wine conference was held on March 24-25 in Barcelona, Spain. Following a welcome speech by host Pancho Campo of the Wine Academy of Spain-urging the gathered 100 or so academics, winemakers and journalists to spread the word about the issues surrounding global warming and climate change-the conference officially began with a discussion by Professor Bernard Seguin, a climate change specialist with France's INRA (National Institute for Agricultural Research).
"Climate change is natural; a greenhouse effect is natural, and it is increasing only at a small level," said Seguin. "We can see the consequences not with our eyes so much as with statistical models," tracing the influence of man upon climate from the 19th century's industrial age. Seguin asserted that the hand of man, via the conversion of forest to arable land and the increase of animal husbandry, initiated a rise in methane gas levels in our atmosphere, which preceded the industrial age. This has paved the way for a rise in carbon dioxide levels, although from the beginning of the 20th century there's been a very slight, approximately 1 degree, warming.
"If you increase carbon dioxide (CO2), you increase the rate of photosynthesis. If the phenology of budburst shifts, it will affect the end quality; veraison will begin in the beginning of July." Seguin concluded that total warming is greater over continents, hence, the greater effect upon the Northern Hemisphere vs. the Southern Hemisphere. Western Europe winter warming will increase 1 to 2 degrees in France and Spain, 3 to 4 in summer, excepting Portugal: "It will be difficult to survive in central Spain."
Seguin noted that Alsace has seen a rise in alcohol level of 2 degrees Celsius over the past three decades, with harvest shifting from October 1 to September 1. Projections for France by the end of the 21st century have three weeks more advanced maturing than what we see currently. With increasingly milder winters, dormancy will begin earlier as will the ripening rate. Oceanic events, such as the slowing of the Gulf Stream, will have a greater impact upon global warming than atmospheric events (such as the emission of greenhouse gases).
What Seguin did make clear is that there's no turning back: "If we emit less, there will be more warming; if we emit more, there will be more warming," he warned.
Sorting out the increase
Seguin's view was echoed by other speakers, including Dr. Xavier Sort of Torres Estates who demonstrated the far greater impact of continued climate change upon his native Catalonia compared to California. "A 1.5-6.2 degree increase is expected for Catalonia, with a great deal of heterogeneity appropriate to a widely varying topography and climate. This region will have a widening variance based upon the season: winter and summer will see greater change than spring and autumn."
Using four different map indices to demonstrate, Sort showed climate change in Catalonia from 2000 to 2100. Most showed that the two-thirds of the region located closest to the coast will have a high increase in temperatures. In spring there would be no drop in temperature while there will be a reduction in the number of total rainfall days and concentrate, yet a similar rainfall total in fewer days. This effect would lead to an increase in floods and, subsequently, erosion. The initial vegetation period would advance by one to two months. With a greater water deficit for an area already suffering, Sort recommended high-efficiency irrigation systems in areas not currently being irrigated.
